IT IS OFFICIAL, THE ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET HAS TIPPED IN THE BUYER’S FAVOR WITH THE SLOWEST JUNE SINCE 2011.
IT’S THE BUYER’S TURN
WITH INVENTORY CLIMBING 61% SINCE LAST YEAR AND DEMAND REMAINING ALMOST UNCHANGED, THE MARKET HAS SLOWED SUBSTANTIALLY.
Standing at the grocery store checkout on a busy afternoon, the lines can stretch on for what seems like forever. Upon looking around, there are inevitably several registers that are not open, despite the throngs of shoppers waiting for someone to ring them up. After waiting for several minutes, not one, but three registers open up, and all lanes are open. “Next in line,” the new cashiers announce. Suddenly, the lines move rapidly, and everyone is able to check out so that they can get home and put away their groceries.
Home buyers have been stuck in long checkout lines with a limited inventory that dates back to the start of 2020. Open houses have been crowded. Multiple offers were the norm. Throngs of buyers toured homes, wrote offers, and hoped that someday they too would be able to secure a home. Suddenly, with the highest June supply since 2019, buyers have a lot more choices, and negotiations are lining up in their favor. Buyers are finally able to “check out” and secure a place to call home.
The evolution of the buyer’s market was extremely slow, taking years to develop. It began in 2022, when rates surged higher, rising from 3.25% in January to 7.37% in October. To counter the low demand, the active inventory remained chronically low as very few homeowners participated in the housing market. Homeowners chose to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move due to their underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. As of the start of 2025, 80% of Californians with a mortgage enjoy a fixed rate at or below 5%. In 2023, 41% fewer homes were placed on the market in Orange County compared to the 3-year pre-pandemic average (2017-2019), or 16,000 missing FOR SALE signs.
ORANGE COUNTY EXPECTED MARKET TIME YEAR-OVER-YEAR (IN DAYS)
Joy Lee
949.290.4903
joy@heyjoylee.com
DRE# 02102122