IT IS BEST TO STEP BACK FROM THE NARRATIVES, OPINIONS, AND NOISE SURROUNDING THE HOUSING MARKET AND FOCUS ON THE UNDERLYING TRENDS.
MARKET SIGNALS
WITH JANUARY IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR, TRENDS ARE ALREADY EMERGING TO BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT LIES AHEAD.
Growing up, nearly everyone has encountered the playground spinner, or merry-go-round, the classic park apparatus that kids love to push to its limits. A friend, sibling, or parent runs around, building momentum, then whips it in an attempt to break a world record for speed or revolutions per minute. Once the ride comes to a complete stop, all its occupants disembark as the world spins around them. Disoriented, it is almost impossible to walk, until finally everything comes into clear focus.
The housing market starts each year as if everyone just got off a playground spinner, a bit disoriented after all of the distractions and festivities of the holiday season. Initially, it is hard to navigate, not knowing what to expect, until the end of January, when the direction of the housing market becomes clearer. The 2026 trends are already emerging, shedding light on future supply, demand, and market speed.
Here are the early Orange County housing trends:
1.New Listings – There are not as many homes coming on the market as initially expected. Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move because of their underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. This trend has been easing from the lows established in 2023, leading to more homes placed on the market in January than the year before. In January 2023, a low was established with only 1,710 new sellers. The 3-year average before the pandemic (2017-2019) was 3,054, 79% higher than the January 2023 figure. In 2024, there were 2,054 new sellers, up 20% from the year before, yet still 33% below the 3-year average. In January 2025, it grew to 2,545 new FOR SALE signs, up 24% from 2024 and 49% from 2023. It was still 17% below the 3-year average. With more and more homeowners inclined to place their homes on the market each year, slowly returning to a “normal” number of market participants, it would be reasonable to expect this trend to continue. However, there were 2,588 new sellers this January, up only 1.7% from last year and down 15% from the 3-year average before COVID.
Joy Lee
949.290.4903
joy@heyjoylee.com
DRE# 02102122