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OC HOUSING REPORT: Bizarre Market Movement

THE ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET EXPERIENCED A SUBSTANTIAL SLOWDOWN THAT IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

UNEXPECTED SLOWDOWN

THE EXPECTED MARKET TIME JUMPED FROM 76 TO 84 DAYS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

It is a beautiful Saturday morning with the sun shining brightly, not a cloud in sight. The family heads out to seize the day and enjoy time together. After a few errands and a quick bite to eat, playing at the park seems like an excellent idea. The whole family is on board. While pushing the kids on the swings, thick dark clouds rapidly make their way across the sky, and it suddenly begins to rain. The rain turns into a downpour. Nobody had an umbrella or even thought for a moment to grab one; after all, it was the perfect sunny day.

That is precisely how the housing market developed in the past couple of weeks. Typically, from the start of the year to mid-January, housing heats up, and the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) starts to drop. This is due to the inventory slowly rising and demand beginning to surge higher. Yet, within the past couple of weeks, the inventory jumped higher, demand rose slightly, and the Expected Market Time surged higher. It is an unexpected development and very unusual market movement.

In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time grew from 76 to 84 days, adding 8 days, or more than a week, to the market time. Last year, it fell from 62 to 56 days. The 28-day year-over-year difference is very noticeable within the marketplace. Since 2004, the Expected Market Time has increased only one time before. In 2014, it rose from 95 to 98 days. From 2012 through 2020, the average drop was 10 days. The considerable rise within the last couple of weeks is unprecedented.